Since the Northstar Line commuter rail service began running in 2009, it has struggled to meet ridership expectations. During the pandemic, ridership plummeted, and has not recovered anywhere near its pre-pandemic level. Now the Metropolitan Council and the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) have announced plans to shut down the commuter rail service and replace it with a bus service. In this post I will address Northstar in its current form, the pros and cons of a bus service replacing it, and what could be done with Northstar’s trains if the replacement bus service is implemented.
Northstar in the Present
First, I don’t believe Northstar can be labeled a failure because it hasn’t reached its intended destination of St. Cloud. A bus bridge linking the northern terminus of Northstar in the tiny town of Big Lake to St. Cloud doesn’t count as a finished project; rather, it’s a testament to our country’s not-so-uncommon cheapness and half-baking when it comes to improving public transportation.
I’ve gone into detail about how Northstar should be improved here, and my view remains the same. Unfortunately, the unwillingness from the Metropolitan Council, MnDOT and elected representatives to fix Northstar also remains the same. There’s no doubt that a massive investment would be needed, not only for Northstar to be extended to St. Cloud, but also to be transformed into an all-day regional rail service. However, shutting it down would only continue the mistakes we’ve made for many decades in which much of our focus and funding for transportation is on cars and roads. Those mistakes have cost us dearly, with severe dependence on cars, communities being divided by roads and freeways, and environmental and health impacts. During the annual road construction season, MnDOT tries to convince us their latest massive multi-million dollar road widening projects will relieve traffic congestion, and we’ve been long overdue to stop that charade. Maintaining road infrastructure is important, but we should move away from maintaining our car dependence and the belief that we can pave our way out of problems.
Some may argue that shutting down Northstar is an easy win the Democratic Party can give to the anti-transit Republican Party, and that way they’ll have leniency on transit improvement projects. However, based on our current political climate, that theory will not match reality. The Republican Party can and will continue to try to block any transit improvements in the Twin Cities and Greater Minnesota, whether they get this win of shutting down Northstar or not.
On the subject of our current political climate, I’ll acknowledge that getting funding to greatly improve Northstar would be very difficult, and, even if there was a sudden political willingness to do so, there’s also the matter of getting BNSF Railway, the owner of the tracks Northstar operates on, to agree to this.
Despite Northstar’s setbacks, I believe it should be kept running as is, until there’s willingness to fix it. If Northstar is shut down it will be very difficult to bring it back, even if there’s strong willingness to make it better. However, I also support bus service improvements that could provide the all-day service in both directions that’s needed for this route.
Proposed Bus Replacement
Unlike in decades past, when passenger trains were run by private companies and the public had virtually no say in the decision-making process of trains getting shut down, the Metropolitan Council and MnDOT are accountable to the people of Minnesota. There needs to be plenty of time to address questions and concerns about the possibility of shutting down Northstar and replacing it with a bus service.
Metro Transit scheduled four public meetings between late April and early May (the last one being today, May 8, in Fridley), and a survey is open until May 11; click here. I don’t believe this is enough, as Northstar impacts the entire Twin Cities region and part of central Minnesota. A few more public meetings should take place in the Twin Cities, and at least two public meetings should be held in the St. Cloud area.
As of now, Metro Transit is proposing a bus service that would operate between downtown Minneapolis and Ramsey, with stops at the Coon Rapids–Riverdale Station and Anoka Station. Buses would operate all day in both directions with 30-minute frequency during the rush hour periods and 60-minute frequency midday. Because Elk River and Big Lake are outside of Metro Transit’s service area, the plan for those two is unknown, as of now. Fridley Station wouldn’t be served by the proposed replacement bus, but Metro Transit’s existing Route 10 and Route 852 are nearby and both operate all day in both directions.
The bus replacement does have the benefit of directly serving downtown Minneapolis. For those whose destination is downtown, this eliminates the time to transfer to the light rail at Target Field Station, so these trips could be slightly quicker or have the same travel time as Northstar. All-day service is also more dependable and convenient than Northstar’s very limited schedule.
While those benefits may make the bus more successful than Northstar, buses can get stuck in traffic, and, even with shoulder lanes to bypass traffic, they would still be going nowhere near as fast as the train can. Beyond Ramsey, there’s the question of if Elk River and Big Lake will get a replacement service, and what will happen to the Northstar Link buses that connect Big Lake and St. Cloud.
This bus replacement plan, while acknowledging the need for convenient service, looks more like an experiment to see how many current Northstar riders Metro Transit can retain, and, if that experiment fails, they’ll just pull the plug on it. A more thought-out plan would seek a partnership with a transit operator that can provide service to Elk River, Big Lake and St. Cloud. Within the Twin Cities, there should be openness to looking at different methods of bus service, such as micro-transit zones for shorter distance travel and improvements to Route 850 and Route 852 for longer-distance travel.
For me the biggest question that comes out of this is unrelated to the bus replacement, but rather what will happen to Northstar’s trains, stations and other assets. While I’ve been clear that I don’t believe Northstar should be shut down, if that decision is made, there should also be a plan to give Northstar’s trains a second chance at life in Minnesota.
Northstar in a New Form
If you’ve ever been along the tracks Northstar operates on, particularly north of Fridley, you’ll see the trains operating at impressive speeds (up to 79 miles per hour, to be exact). Northstar’s fleet consists of six diesel locomotives and 18 coaches, six of them being cab-cars, in which the engineer can operate the train from the opposite end of the locomotive. These are stored and maintained at a facility in Big Lake.
These assets could be used as an opportunity to provide a different passenger rail service for the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota. With the speed these trains can achieve, something more akin to an intercity rail service could perform well, as we’ve seen with Amtrak’s newish Borealis train between the Twin Cities and Chicago.
One idea is using Northstar’s trains for Northern Lights Express, the proposed intercity rail service between Minneapolis and Duluth, and it’s certainly an option to keep in mind. However, to reduce cost and speed up implementation of the trains on a different service, I’ll be focusing on the route Amtrak uses through Minnesota from as north as Fargo to as far east as Chicago. The stations Northstar’s trains could use already exist; the storage and maintenance facility in Big Lake is located on the route; the track infrastructure is already built for passenger rail service; and, in theory, little investment would be required for track upgrades and other infrastructure.
Option 1: Minneapolis and/or St. Paul to St. Cloud
This would probably be the easiest and cheapest to implement. Northstar would finally reach St. Cloud, but instead of a commuter-oriented schedule, it would have a bare minimum all-day service consisting of one or two morning roundtrips, one midday roundtrip and one or two afternoon/evening roundtrips. All or some of Northstar’s existing suburban stations would be intermediate stops.
While Target Field Station in Minneapolis is probably the preferred Twin Cities terminus, St. Paul’s Union Depot has the benefit of connecting with Amtrak’s Borealis to and from Chicago. Instead of this being an either/or issue between Minneapolis and St. Paul however, trains could serve both. The engineer would need additional time to switch ends of the train at Target Field Station, but the benefit of directly serving both Minneapolis and St. Paul could outweigh that.
Option 2: St. Paul to Fargo
Additional passenger rail service has been desired between the Twin Cities and Fargo, and Northstar’s trains could provide that. This train would stop at all of Amtrak’s existing stations along the route and potentially also have a stop at one of Northstar’s existing stations in the northern suburbs.
On this particular segment, Amtrak’s Empire Builder operates eastbound in the early morning and westbound late at night, not an optimal time for most travelers. One or two new trips on this route could provide a better schedule for travelers, as well as be timed to facilitate transfers with Amtrak’s Borealis service at St. Paul Union Depot to/from Chicago, essentially creating a Fargo-to-Chicago service with a single easy transfer between trains.
Option 3: St. Cloud-St. Paul-Winona
The intention of this option is mainly for travelers within Minnesota, for example a student at Winona State University visiting family in the Twin Cities, or someone living in St. Cloud taking a day trip to Red Wing. In addition to serving all of Amtrak’s existing stations on the route, there could also be a stop at one of Northstar’s existing stations in the northern suburbs.
This option may be the most complicated to implement, as it involves using the tracks of three different railroad companies. On the southeastern end, it involves operating on a busy rail corridor that is single-track. It’s likely that, at most, only three roundtrip trains per day could be operated, but, because of track capacity constraints, it may be limited to just one roundtrip train per day. There would also only be five stations on this route, as several communities (e.g., Lake City in the southeast and Becker in the northwest) could provide additional ridership but have no existing station infrastructure.
Option 4: Third daily St. Paul-Chicago train
With the success of Amtrak’s Borealis, there’s strong interest for an additional Twin Cities-Chicago train. While this would require working with many stakeholders along the 400+ mile route, there are plans to add another train on Amtrak’s Hiawatha between Chicago and Milwaukee. This could improve the chances of one of these trains being extended to the Twin Cities. There’s also enough time in the schedule for the Borealis and a third daily train to serve St. Cloud, as well.
Rolling Stock
Amtrak is currently facing a shortage of coaches, recently exacerbated by certain coaches being pulled from service due to corrosion issues. This has impacted service on several Amtrak routes including the Hiawatha between Chicago and Milwaukee, and the Borealis between Chicago and St. Paul. Metro Transit is planning to assist with this shortage by leasing one locomotive, two coaches and one cab car from Northstar’s fleet to Amtrak for the Hiawatha.
The interiors of Northstar’s coaches were designed for shorter distance commuter use, whereas Amtrak coach interiors are designed for longer distance travel, so passengers can sit comfortably for long periods. However, the Hiawatha’s end-to-end travel time is only around 1.5 hours, so Northstar’s coaches are suited for it. For the St. Paul-Fargo and St. Paul-Chicago options I presented above, perhaps there would be an opportunity to do an exchange in which a certain number of Hiawatha’s coaches are used for a new rail service in Minnesota, while the Hiawatha gets a certain number of Northstar’s coaches for their service.
Potential for Something Better
Even when just looking at the route Minnesota’s existing passenger trains use, there are several possibilities for reusing Northstar’s trains and facilities. Beyond that route, there are many more opportunities to do something with these trains that can benefit Minnesotans and be more successful than the existing Northstar service. Any options will require study and planning, but, if the Met Council and MnDOT are willing to put in the effort to shut down Northstar, then they should also put in the effort to do something better with Northstar’s trains, while still improving Minnesota’s passenger rail system.