Chart of the Day: Saint Paul Housing Cost vs. Income for Renters and Homeowners

There’s a wonderful new draft of a document called the “Housing Conditions and Trends Inventor, Needs Assessment, and Implementation Strategy” from the Saint Paul Planning and Economic Department that was released last week in conjunction with the draft Comprehensive Plan. It is chock full of housing data, including lots of information about the current state of affairs and trends around affordable housing in Saint Paul.

Here are two of the interesting charts that relate directly to housing affordability in the city. They show – for both renters and homeowners! – the trends around costs / rents against incomes for these two groups.

Here goes. The first is the homeownership cost trends chart:

This one shows the same kind of data, but for renters:

 

The report does not have a ton of analysis, and is more of a really thought provoking data dump. But you can draw some conclusions from all of it.

The most obvious one to me is that there are really two separate worlds out there. The ownership market and the rental market might as well be in two separate cities. Compare the income scales along the Y-axis. A lot of this certainly reflects our city’s deep racial inequalities.

But there are also appear to be deep divisions in the housing market between rental and owner-occupied. The cost of owning a home is staying relatively flat, and people that own them can deal with the rising prices more easily because their incomes are also keeping pace. The rental market on the other hand is quickly getting out of reach for people at the bottom, especially as real incomes decline.

I would guess that this widening inequality is going to place a lot of pressure on the “NOAH” (naturally occurring affordable housing) category. If this trend continues, it’s not going to end well for folks at the low end of the wealth spectrum.

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5 Responses to Chart of the Day: Saint Paul Housing Cost vs. Income for Renters and Homeowners

  1. Tom Quinn March 29, 2018 at 12:46 pm #

    I’m a little confused by your comments. Looking at the inflation adjusted numbers (dotted lines) for rentals, the change doesn’t seem all that dramatic.

    • Bill Lindeke
      Bill Lindeke March 29, 2018 at 2:13 pm #

      The gap is growing is the point. This hides a LOT of internal difference as well. More charts to come!

  2. Anon March 29, 2018 at 1:54 pm #

    I was confused too; the graph is scaled wrong to illustrate Bill’s point. The prose in the report does a better job. From page 22:

    Adjusting both housing cost and income to 2016 values shows that household income has gone up for owner households by about 16% while monthly housing costs have gone up by 10%.

    …..and….

    Adjusting for inflation, gross rent has increased by 9% while household income has declined by 3%.

  3. Jak March 30, 2018 at 3:28 pm #

    If you cant spell “Monthly” Correctly in your graph, then how well should I trust the math behind it….

    • Bill Lindeke
      Bill Lindeke March 30, 2018 at 3:52 pm #

      It’s a draft document.

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